Blog

Research and analysis from the LoanTape pipeline. Every number comes from loan-level data across auto ABS and SBA lending.

Auto ABS

Payment-to-Income Ranks Risk

Across 2018+ auto ABS vintages, payment-to-income ranks 12-month default risk inside both prime and subprime credit bands. The slope is visible even after splitting borrowers by FICO.

Russell Warden
SBA Lending

The 25% SBA Drop That Wasn't

Q1 2026 SBA approvals look down 25% year over year. Strip out the 43-day federal shutdown and dollar volume is essentially flat with average ticket size up 22%.

Russell Warden
SBA Lending

SBA Industry Delinquency: Trucking Leads, Restaurants Carry the Biggest Dollar Exposure

First loan-level look at SBA 7(a) delinquency by industry. Trucking 3.7%, Accommodation/Food 3.0%. With $829M past-due, Accommodation carries the largest dollar exposure.

Russell Warden
SBA Lending

SBA Loan-Level Delinquency Is Public for the First Time

SBA's April 2026 data release exposes loan-by-loan delinquency. The first look shows Huntington's 7(a) delinquency rate is three times the top-20 average.

Russell Warden
Auto ABS

Subprime Auto's 2021 Collateral Break

From 2017 to 2020, subprime auto origination collateral drifted slowly. In 2021 the cohort jumped, and high-LTV and old-vehicle risk have moved together since.

Russell Warden
Auto ABS

Aging Cars, Rising Delinquency in Subprime Auto

Subprime auto pools have aged from 2.1 to 5.15 years of vehicle age in nine years. One in five subprime balances now stacks 120%+ LTV with a 5+ year vehicle.

Russell Warden
Auto ABS

Prime Auto 30+ DPD: Each Year Is the New Floor

Prime auto ABS 30+ day DPD hit 1.60% in February 2026, nearly double the 2019 floor. The seasonal overlay shows each year resetting higher.

Russell Warden
SBA Lending

The Buy-vs-Build Gap Is Mostly a Sub-$1M Story in SBA Lending

Across 140,696 funded SBA loans, most of the startup-versus-acquisition chargeoff gap sits below $1 million. Above that, the spread shrinks fast.

Russell Warden
Auto ABS

Auto ABS Trust Adds: February 2026

February 2026 trust adds totaled $7.4B across 215K loans. GM's additions came in cleaner than its existing book, while Exeter's moved the other way.

Russell Warden
SBA Lending

Buying Is Usually Safer Than Starting: SBA Chargeoff Rates by Business Age

If the buy-versus-build question matters to you, the SBA data leans one way: across 149,847 loans, acquisition loans beat startups on 5-year chargeoff rates in all 12 industries with enough volume to compare.

Russell Warden
Auto ABS

Subprime Auto ABS Affordability Reset

Subprime auto ABS is not the same thing as low income anymore. Post-COVID, larger balances were matched by higher borrower incomes and older used vehicles.

Russell Warden
SBA Lending

SBA Loan Chargeoff Rates: Sector Volatility Across 25 Years

Real Estate SBA loans hit 33.8% chargeoff within 5 years in 2007. The same sector in 2012: 0.6%. Here's the full range by sector.

Russell Warden
Data Deep Dives

What's in the SEC Auto ABS Loan-Level Schema

A walkthrough of the SEC auto ABS loan-level schema, including exact ABS-EE variables like obligorCreditScore, paymentToIncomePercentage, currentDelinquencyStatus, and chargedoffPrincipalAmount.

Russell Warden
SBA Lending

SBA Chargeoff Rates by Industry: Which Sectors Lose the Most?

We analyzed 1M+ SBA loans across 20 industries. Transport loses at 5.4%. Healthcare holds at 2.3%. See every sector's chargeoff rate.

Russell Warden
Data Deep Dives

What LoanTape Parses and Why It Matters

We parse SEC Form 10-D, ABS-EE XML, and SBA FOIA loan data into normalized datasets. Here is what we cover and how we do it.

Russell Warden
Auto ABS

Auto ABS Delinquency Trends: January 2026

January 2026 auto ABS data shows delinquency holding steady year-over-year, with prime pools improving while subprime 60-plus rates tick higher.

Russell Warden